Hi and welcome to Quality Share Surfer.
This is a UK focused investing blog in which I chronicle my decisions following a real life portfolio and discuss and improve my investment strategy.
My investing strategy is based the idea that shares with certain attributes, e.g. value, quality and momentum, outperform the market on average. It is focussed primarily on exploiting two such attributes in combination: a) the tendency for high quality, defensive businesses to outperform over time and b) the tendency of shares with momentum to continue to do well. You can find out more about my strategy following the menu above.
Hope you enjoy and please leave comments if you find this interesting or would like to ask questions or discuss related topics.
Quality Share Surfer
The portfolio has been on a pretty good run over the last month or so. I’m now fully invested, having spent the last of my cash balance this week topping up Adobe Systems and buying a new holding in Microgen.
I’ve been very busy at work recently so am struggling to make much time for the blog. I am gathering ideas to write about for when I have more time later in the summer. Continue reading
The ‘Nifty Fifty’ was the moniker for a set of popular blue-chip US stocks in the 60s and 70s. They were widely regarded as high quality businesses whose growth prospects were so solid that they could be bought and held forever. Well they were until their subsequent crash and underperformance in the late 70s and early 80s. After that, with the benefit of hindsight, the conventional wisdom became that they were an example of a speculative bubble.
I’ve decided to have a look back to see what lessons there are from this experience that can be applied to the current market environment. This has been prompted by some recent commentary. Back in December, Neil Woodford likened the current market environment to the market environment when the Nifty Fifty ‘bubble’ burst, prompting him to warn in no uncertain terms of the impending doom for those holding high quality ‘bond-proxies’. More recently, I’ve read another blog post, which looked at the performance of a few Nifty Fifty constituents since the height of the bubble and found that they didn’t actually underperform over the long term despite the high prices prevailing at the time. Intrigued by this apparent conflict in perspectives, I’ve decided to have a look myself… Continue reading
A good week for the portfolio last week – a 2% rise. Market conditions seem pretty optimal to me at the moment. The FTSE has benefited from a surge in the oil price over the last month and a fall in the Pound against the Dollar. Quite a few shares on my watchlist seem to be breaking out or about to break out. There seems to be a healthy degree of scepticism in the media at the moment about how much further the market can continue to rise. Hopefully this should mean there is cash on the sidelines to provide the fuel for another leg up over the second half of the year. Continue reading
You are at the doctor, and you have just been told the disturbing news that you tested positive in a routine blood test for a disease you know is rare but typically fatal. But surprisingly the doctor has suggested that you should not worry – the test is ‘only’ 95% accurate. Continue reading
This week stock markets continued to rebound globally following the period of volatility earlier this year. Most of the stocks in my portfolio had a good week, though the overall performance was held back by a veiled profit warning from On the Beach, one of my larger positions. Continue reading
I normally choose what to buy from my watchlist based primarily on share price momentum. This is for good reason – momentum is a proven phenomenon. However, this may mean I am neglecting occasional opportunities to ‘buy the dip’ in the less well-performing shares on my watchlist i.e. buying shares when their prices have (hopefully temporarily!) fallen. A number of the shares on my watchlist have recently successfully recovered from temporary dips. Buying the dip could be a useful addition to my arsenal, so I’ve thought through whether and when I might employ it. Continue reading
My portfolio had a fairly decent week last week, breaking out more convincingly to new highs. We are in the middle of results season, with five companies in my portfolio reporting this week: Estee Lauder, Paycom, MasterCard, Moncler and Howden Joinery (new buy). All of these reported earnings and revenues ahead of analyst expectations. However, some of their share prices fell on the news, including fairly substantial falls from Estee Lauder and Paycom, presumably as speculators were hoping for even greater outperformance. Thankfully my portfolio did well in spite of this, or I might have felt rather hard done by… Continue reading