Welcome to Quality Share Surfer.
This is a UK focused investing blog, where I regularly set out my thoughts on investing strategy, economics and behavioural finance and chronicle the decisions I make for my own portfolio. My goal is to bring clarity to complex ideas and provide original insight you won’t find elsewhere.
My investing style is ‘behavioural’ in that it aims to take advantage of systematic errors made by other investors. The idea is that these errors lead shares with certain attributes, e.g. value, quality and momentum, to tend to outperform the market. My strategy is focused primarily on exploiting two such attributes in combination: a) the tendency for high quality businesses to outperform over time and b) the tendency of shares with momentum to continue to do well. You can find out more about my strategy following the menu above.
I hope you find the blog useful. Please leave comments if you find this interesting or would like to ask questions or discuss related topics.
Quality Share Surfer
It’s been a busy time for me lately, the main thing of course being my wedding last week. A huge amount of time, care and anguish has gone into preparing this three day extravaganza, so I’m delighted that it’s been a resounding success and more importantly that I tied the knot with the love of my life. Continue reading
I wasn’t intending to write a post this week as I am still very busy with other engagements at the moment. However, after the dramatic short attack on Burford Capital last week, which until quite recently had been one of my largest positions, I’ve decided to record my thoughts and a number of recent trades. Continue reading
July has been fairly uneventful for my portfolio so far, with very little volatility as the gainers and losers seem to be cancelling each other out. It’s been quite a while since I’ve had a chance to update on my recent trades, so I now have three to catch up on. Continue reading
It was inevitable that equity markets would lose some steam after the spectacular bounce in the first quarter. The second quarter has been more volatile as the conflicting narratives of impending recession and indefinitely continuing low interest rates play out, though overall the markets have continued to make progress. After a fantastic April, my portfolio has been slowly and steadily inching forward over the last couple of months. Continue reading
I can only post fairly infrequently at the moment as I have a lot on my plate, what with planning our DIY summer wedding and simultaneously embarking on the most important work project of my career so far. It’s been a lot harder to make time for the blog. I do intend to keep it running, but at a slower pace for the time being.
A recurring issue I’ve been grappling with recently is whether I should be trying to shift my focus more to smaller businesses. Instinctively, it feels like the smaller cap space should be a more productive hunting ground for a small private investor like me. I’d expect small caps to be less well researched and the markets more illiquid, giving greater scope for shares to be mispriced. On top of that there should be greater scope for growth when you start from a smaller base. However, in practice I’ve found that identifying high quality is much harder in the small caps space. Should be trying harder? Continue reading
Markets had a bit of a wobble since my last update a couple of weeks ago, but are now looking up again. The financial news often feels like Groundhog Day at the moment, with the same concerns about a US or global recession, the reaction of the Fed, inverted yield curves, trade wars and Brexit appearing then receding from week to week. My portfolio has been holding up relatively well apart from one fly in the ointment – Burford Capital.
In my view, the most important empirical result in equity investing is just how unevenly long term returns are distributed across different businesses. This has important implications, yet is often overlooked. It provides the clearest rationale for why focusing on quality is the main, or perhaps even the only, thing that matters in the long run. Continue reading