My crystal ball is better than yours: superforecasting

The inspiration for this post is a book I read recently called ‘Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction’ by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It’s a good read with quite a few interesting insights. The possible applications of these insights to investing really struck a chord with me. Continue reading

More market volatility

The markets have not been kind over the last couple of weeks, particularly to holders of higher rated growth businesses. After such a strong run over the previous year the change is certainly noticeable. My portfolio is about 4% off its high but of more concern is that most of the share prices of my watchlist companies are rolling over too. I’ve decided to take some evasive action. Continue reading