I’ve discussed and developed various aspects of my strategy a lot since I started writing this blog in February. There are diminishing returns to tinkering with my strategy and at some point too much attention becomes a negative. I am relatively happy with it now and think I need to give it some time to do its thing.
So next year I plan to write relatively fewer strategy posts, but instead take some deeper looks at some of the shares in my portfolio and watchlist. I’m going to try and focus on the more high level, qualitative and idiosyncratic issues rather than simply what can be seen from the numbers.
The first issue I’m going to explore is Games Workshop: is the current growth sustainable or just another product cycle? Continue reading
There seem to be some signs of danger in the market at the moment. I’ve seen some reports of very high levels of optimism and low investor cash balances (mostly relating to the US). While markets are still near all time highs, quite a bit of sector rotation has been happening away from growth and technology stocks towards value. These are possible signs that a correction is imminent. I’ve read quite a few predictions that 2018 will be the year for a correction after the long bull run we’ve had.
Undoubtedly one of the keys to successful investing is discipline. Rules are needed to consistently implement a strategy, while guarding against the influence of emotions and behavioural mistakes.
I have an investing strategy with some fairly clearly defined rules. The difficulty I, and most other investors, face is the lack of certainty as to whether the rules we are following are the right ones. As important as discipline is the ability to learn from mistakes. Things not going to plan may mean a rule needs updating. However, being open to updating the rules too readily can undermine them when you most need them. The balance is a tricky one… Continue reading
November was a pretty poor month for my portfolio, with it falling over 5%. This has come on the back of a good year or two, which may have led me to become overly sensitive to a bit of market volatility. I think there are some lessons to be learned, but I’m not sure I’ve been learning all the right ones recently. Continue reading