I’ve recently been investing a fairly sizeable sum of new capital to my portfolio. The rebalancing required to account for this explains many of the recent transactions in the fantasy fund I use to track my performance. As well as topping up a few existing holdings, I’ve made a couple of new purchases last week: IG Group and Burford Capital. I’ve also sold out of Boohoo for an 8% loss, as the price has broken down to new lows. I expect it to bounce back fairly soon (it reports in April) though I’m going to wait and see from the sidelines rather than hold in hope. Continue reading
For those not very familiar with investing it is natural to assume that an amateur private investor must be at a big disadvantage to the professionals. After all, stock-picking is a zero sum game. Surely it must be difficult to win at this game at the expense of the people who do it for a living. These people have greater knowledge and expertise, have spent much more time honing their skills and benefit from better access to information and to company management. Continue reading
Things are looking up. In the US at least the stockmarkets look to have resumed uptrends following February’s short correction. The general mood has calmed down from the euphoric state we were in in January. My portfolio has had a good week and is back near its highs. All of this I think bodes well for returns in the near future at least… Continue reading
I’ve been wanting to write a post on a more big picture topic for a while. Macroeconomics has come to the fore in investors’ minds, with recent volatility prompted by concerns about inflation and interest rates. As a professional economist (though not macroeconomist), I do feel a sort of duty to be able to say something about the macroeconomic situation. However, after a few attempts at starting a post, I’ve discovered that I don’t have anything very illuminating to add. Trying to predict the economy as a whole is complicated and feels too much like guesswork. My view is fairly straightforward: I’m fairly optimistic at the moment because, having thought about the obvious concerns, I don’t yet see good reason not to be.
So instead of macroeconomics, I’m writing about another more interesting and useful big picture topic – horizon scanning.