About time

My mechanical portfolio experiment has got me thinking more about the dimension of time. Investing is basically a race, more of a marathon than a sprint, but a race nonetheless. Like all races, minimising the time taken to get from A to B is the thing that matters the most. If you didn’t care how long it took to generate returns, you would keep your money in a low risk savings account. We all understand this, but we often don’t pay so much attention to the time dimension in practice. Thinking about the time dimension more explicitly can help you to deal with a notoriously difficult part of investing strategy – how frequently and in what circumstances should you sell?

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LSE & JDG bought

My portfolio is treading water at the moment. I’m still optimistic about the remainder of the year, which tends to be the strongest season for the stock market. As I mentioned in my last post, I’m going to move to trading at most only once every two weeks so that I don’t end up relying on stop losses too much, or overtrade. I started with one trade this week under this new system. In addition to that, I have to update on a trade made last week. Continue reading

Lessons from the mechanical portfolio

I questioned whether I should be running a more mechanical system back in January.  At the time I decided I wasn’t quite ready to hand over the controls to my portfolio just yet, but would set up a mechanical benchmark portfolio to track my performance against. It’s too early to reach any conclusions but the early signs for the mechanical portfolio are good – it’s been on quite a tear this year so far. Continue reading

Risk and diversification

Deciding how concentrated my portfolio should be is a question I’ve mulled over many times. I wrote about it in a previous post more than a year ago, where I decided that I would benefit from being more concentrated. Unfortunately, I think my reasoning then, while on the right lines, was a little half-baked. As a result, I still feel torn by the conflicting desires to either diversify into more of the attractive-looking opportunities on my watchlist, or to only concentrate on my very best ones. To build a more coherent approach I can confidently stick to, I think I need to go back to first principles.  Continue reading

A question of perspective

The ability to look at a complex problem from multiple perspectives is a skill useful in many different contexts, none more so than investing. Different perspectives often yield different insights, so if you can effectively combine multiple perspectives, in principle you should be able to materially improve your decision-making. Despite this, as I mentioned in my recent post on contrarianism, there is often a tendency for people to prefer to focus on what they see to be ‘the one true way’, rather than acknowledge the legitimacy of other perspectives.

In this post I talk about a perspective that is highly relevant to investing but often relatively neglected – the ‘external’ perspective of a business. Continue reading