I’m about as bearish as I’ve been on the medium term prospects for the stock market. Like many others, I feel that the stock market isn’t fully reflecting the risks to the economy from the lock-down measures currently implemented around the world. It is already evident that the magnitude of the economic shock is unprecedented. And that’s even if we manage to lift the lock-down measures soon. It seems unlikely that we will to do so fully given the high probability of the dreaded ‘second wave’. In the meantime the economy will continue to suffer. Why then does the stock market seem to be defying gravity at the moment?

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