My investing strategy has two stages. The first is to identify a watchlist of the highest quality businesses I can find. This takes advantage of the ‘big idea’ underpinning my strategy – that I can identify high quality businesses that are likely to be materially undervalued when their long term growth is properly accounted for. The second stage is to trade the businesses on the watchlist based on their current momentum, valuation and news flow.
In practice, it’s been the first stage rather than the second which has delivered most of the returns. This is demonstrated by the strong relative performance of my benchmark buy and hold portfolio, which simply holds all of the shares on my watchlist for the long term. My approach to the second stage is less clearly defined and has evolved over time as I have experimented with different approaches. If I want to improve my results, I think this is what I need to focus on.
January seems to have got off to a flying start with stock markets resuming their bull run. I’m currently basking in the warm glow from a rash of positive trading updates issued by several of my larger holdings, including Boohoo, Games Workshop, Gamma Communications, Liontrust and most notably Best of the Best (notwithstanding rather perverse reactions from Boohoo and Games Workshop). Nice as this is, it’s hard to ignore the current speculation that we are in a bubble and that impending doom is lurking somewhere round the corner. It does feel that way. After discussing this in my last few posts, I don’t have much new to say about the bubble. I set out my plan of action in my January review.
Well I’m glad to see the back of 2020, a year in which the world truly went to shit. Given the catastrophic hit to GDP, it’s surprising that 2020 turned out to be a very decent year for investors who managed to keep a level head. My overall return for 2020 came in at 34.1%, exceeding my long term average. All in all I’m happy with this result, but I was a bit lucky to be honest.