About qualitysharesurfer

UK based private investor sunlighting as a competition economist

Autumn trades

A modicum of normality has been restored in the UK since Rishi Sunak has been brought in to replace Truss after her chaotic but short-lived reign. Well, at least the markets have been placated a bit, with gilt yields coming back down and the Pound recovering a little. Stock markets had been doing fairly well over the past few weeks, until the Fed poured another load of cold water on any optimism that had started to re-kindle with its latest pronouncements on interest rate hikes.

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Portfolio Review: October 2022

It has been another tough quarter as the summer rebound gave way to further selling, leaving the market indices and my portfolio currently near their lows for the year. This is unsurprising given the macro outlook. Even as the economy is showing signs of weakening, there is little sign of inflation dissipating yet and most central banks are rapidly tightening interest rates. The inauspicious launch of Trussonomics has added to the general turbulence, causing UK interest rates to rise and causing some concern for mortgagors like me.

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Bear market resumed

After a strong rally over the last couple of months, things have come crashing back down to earth over the past week or so. Fears about rising interest rates have come back to the fore and were crystallised in Jay Powell’s comments last Friday, aimed to signal that the Fed will take no prisoners when it comes to tackling inflation.

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Portfolio Review: July 2022

In ’real life’ I’ve had a good (albeit quite stressful) year so far. However, in the worlds of geopolitics and investing, 2022 seems likely to go down in the record books as a pretty terrible year, as the extent of the self-inflicted damage from the lunacy that has prevailed for the past couple of years has begun to reveal itself. Oh yeah, and Russia decided to start a war in Europe. For the US stock markets it was the worst first half since 1970. This seems appropriate as the high inflation, rising interest environment has felt reminiscent of the 70s. My portfolio has has its worse ever first half too – down almost 25% (though it has since recovered 5%-odd over the last couple of weeks).

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Catching up

I’ve neglected the blog since my last quarterly review back near the beginning of April. I’ve had rather a lot on my plate with work and family and haven’t had the time or mental bandwidth to get my thoughts down on paper. This has unfortunately coincided with the unpleasant but fascinating carnage unfolding in economies around the world and in the stock market. This has left my portfolio battered and bloody at the half-way point this year. I should have a bit more free time over the coming months to resume writing here. First I have a bit of catching up to do on my recent trades.

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Portolio Review: April 2022

I think it’s fair to say that it’s been a difficult first quarter for most investors, but especially those who invest in growth stocks or small caps. A rout in growth stocks driven by inflation and the anticipation of tightening monetary conditions was compounded by the war in Ukraine. There has been a significant rebound since then but my portfolio is still down by around 10% YTD, having been more than 20% down at one point.

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War

2022 is turning out to be a pretty unpleasant year for investing in growth stocks. After a dire January, February turned out not to be a whole lot better and March has started off grimly too. Much of this has been driven by the same fears of inflation and impending interest rate rises. However, events have now of course been overtaken by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Growthmaggedon

It’s been a difficult start to 2022 for growth-oriented investors. Most growth stocks have been falling since the minutes from the December Fed meeting were released in early January. These took a more hawkish tone than expected and fears of runaway inflation and rising interest rates appear to have taken over.

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Portfolio Review: January 2022

The last quarter was a bit of a rollercoaster, extending the volatility of the previous one. My portfolio and watchlist have hit some speed bumps, with various shares selling off one after the other and only some rebounding. Not everything has been hit but in general small caps seem to have fared relatively worse. The net result is that I have made little progress over the last quarter and have a 13% total return for 2021, underperforming most of my benchmarks over the year for the first time in a while. This is naturally a bit disappointing but could have been a lot worse I suppose.

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