About qualitysharesurfer

UK based private investor sunlighting as a competition economist

Fat tails

I’ve often read that over the long term the most important factor driving equity returns is valuation. While share prices experience momentum over the short to medium term, eventually investors become more conscious that valuations are becoming ‘detached from reality’ and prices revert to mean.  Along this line of reasoning, momentum following is a dangerous game that can lead to bubbles and then crashes, such as the infamous ‘Dot-com’ crash in 2002-3. While there is truth to this analysis for the stock market as a whole, it misses a key nuance when you look at what is going on underneath. Continue reading

Broadening horizons

There has been one a rather obvious way to improve my investment performance that I haven’t yet exploited. It has been on the back of mind for some time. This is to broaden the universe of stocks I invest in to beyond those that trade on the London Stock Exchange. I think the benefits of this have the potential to be quite dramatic. Continue reading

Stock season

We’ve left September behind and moved into October. Traditionally this is bad for the weather but good for stocks. I’m hoping so and things are beginning to look more positive. The scores of the shares on my watchlist are starting to tick up higher due to positive news and some share prices hitting new highs.  Continue reading

Difficult week

It was a difficult week last week, with falls across a lot of the portfolio. The weekly performance at almost -5% was the worse for more than a year. I’m increasingly feeling that we are embarking on period of volatility where my momentum strategy is going to come a bit unstuck. Though it’s premature to say that of course. September is often not a great month for investing. Continue reading