About qualitysharesurfer

UK based private investor sunlighting as a competition economist

Portfolio Review: January 2022

The last quarter was a bit of a rollercoaster, extending the volatility of the previous one. My portfolio and watchlist have hit some speed bumps, with various shares selling off one after the other and only some rebounding. Not everything has been hit but in general small caps seem to have fared relatively worse. The net result is that I have made little progress over the last quarter and have a 13% total return for 2021, underperforming most of my benchmarks over the year for the first time in a while. This is naturally a bit disappointing but could have been a lot worse I suppose.

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Copycat portfolio update

This is the end of the second year of my copycat portfolio experiment. So far it’s performed well but not outstandingly. Over the past year it returned 25.2%, which compares favourably to the FTSE (11.3%) and S&P 500 (23.1%) and my actual portfolio (21%). Over two years the copycat portfolio has returned 46.9% compared to FTSE (-1.61%) and S&P 500 (45%) and my portfolio (45%).

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Black Friday

Stock markets seem to have taken a bit of a fright at news of a new Covid variant and the prospect of lockdowns rearing their ugly heads again. This news has unsurprisingly hammered the sectors most affected ie travel, retail and other cyclical sectors. My portfolio has fared relatively better than the indices in response to this news, though this is coming off the back of a week’s mauling by another short but sharp rotation from growth to value.

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October trades

October was a decent month and my portfolio managed to claw back some of the fall from the end of September. The market as a whole seems to have recovered some of its mojo and US earnings season has started fairly positively, though I’m not sure how long this will last. The spectre of rising inflation and interest rates still looms in the background.

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Portfolio Review: October 2021

The last quarter was not a great one with my portfolio dropping by 2.6%. After a decent summer, September was a real shocker with a rotation away from growth shares hitting most of the shares in my portfolio and my watchlist simultaneously. I was also hit by a couple of profit warnings from CMC Markets and Boohoo. Underperformance against my benchmarks will happen from time to time so this isn’t a great cause for concern but it does serve as a warning to check my strategy is still working. I’m feeling cautious about its short to medium term prospects from here so have raised a bit of cash.

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Quality meltdown

Inflation has been consistent theme in my posts for a while now, to the extent that it has become rather boring to talk about. However, it is unfortunately still the most important macro issue at the moment and the signs of how disruptive and persistent its effects might be are getting worse. Central bankers are starting to express concern that it might be less transitory than they hoped and asset markets have reacted badly with yields rising again and equities resuming their rotation from growth to value. Last week was pretty dire for my portfolio (down around 9%) as many shares turned down at the same time.

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August trades

I’m feeling refreshed after having finally managed to escape the country and take a quick trip to France. August was a decent month for the markets and my portfolio has been doing pretty well despite a few disappointing reactions to recent results. For now market conditions seem promising – most of the shares in my portfolio and watchlist have strong momentum and look primed to go higher, while overall sentiment seems healthily skeptical. It seems quite likely that we get a bit of a run from here.

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Interesting times

Many of the Covid restrictions have been lifted now but the world still seems far from returning to normal. The information war continues apace, with different groups of people further entrenching themselves in their various bubbles of reality. While fascinating from a sociological perspective, these are not the easiest times to be living through. From an investing perspective, predicting the fallout from the restrictions continues to create its own controversies and unwanted distraction.

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Portfolio review: July 2021

2021 has been an OK year so far investing-wise. My portfolio is currently near its highs and has clocked in at a 16.7% return at the half way point. This is above most of my benchmarks and more or less in line with my long term CAGR. However, after the excitement of last year and given how well the UK market has been doing in general, progress has felt a little pedestrian. Overall I’m happy, though keen to identify any weaknesses in my strategy or whether I could be doing anything differently.

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