My portfolio is treading water at the moment. I’m still optimistic about the remainder of the year, which tends to be the strongest season for the stock market. As I mentioned in my last post, I’m going to move to trading at most only once every two weeks so that I don’t end up relying on stop losses too much, or overtrade. I started with one trade this week under this new system. In addition to that, I have to update on a trade made last week. Continue reading
I questioned whether I should be running a more mechanical system back in January. At the time I decided I wasn’t quite ready to hand over the controls to my portfolio just yet, but would set up a mechanical benchmark portfolio to track my performance against. It’s too early to reach any conclusions but the early signs for the mechanical portfolio are good – it’s been on quite a tear this year so far. Continue reading
Deciding how concentrated my portfolio should be is a question I’ve mulled over many times. I wrote about it in a previous post more than a year ago, where I decided that I would benefit from being more concentrated. Unfortunately, I think my reasoning then, while on the right lines, was a little half-baked. As a result, I still feel torn by the conflicting desires to either diversify into more of the attractive-looking opportunities on my watchlist, or to only concentrate on my very best ones. To build a more coherent approach I can confidently stick to, I think I need to go back to first principles. Continue reading
The ability to look at a complex problem from multiple perspectives is a skill useful in many different contexts, none more so than investing. Different perspectives often yield different insights, so if you can effectively combine multiple perspectives, in principle you should be able to materially improve your decision-making. Despite this, as I mentioned in my recent post on contrarianism, there is often a tendency for people to prefer to focus on what they see to be ‘the one true way’, rather than acknowledge the legitimacy of other perspectives.
In this post I talk about a perspective that is highly relevant to investing but often relatively neglected – the ‘external’ perspective of a business. Continue reading
My portfolio continues to wade slowly through the rather treacly summer markets. Some of my larger holdings, notably Burford, seem to be going from strength to strength, while others, like Bioventix, are showing some (hopefully temporary) weakness. Still, slow progress is better than no progress and right now I’m feeling optimistic that the second half of the year should be a good one. Continue reading
Humans hate uncertainty. Uncertainty is stressful. Often it is even more stressful than a certain negative outcome. The reason we find uncertainty so stressful is so it prompts us to take action. When our ancestors weren’t sure if a predator was lurking nearby, the ones that got a bit stressed out by the idea and took steps to find out probably did better than those that blissfully carried on their business regardless. But like many other evolutionary instincts, the desire to reduce uncertainty can lead us astray when it comes to investing. Continue reading
It’s slow but steady progress at the moment for my portfolio. All seems well right now but I expect some more volatility is just around the corner, judging by how this year has been going so far.
This is just a short post to update on my trades from last week. A few mistakes unfortunately, but hopefully I’ve resolved them well. Continue reading