Bear market resumed

After a strong rally over the last couple of months, things have come crashing back down to earth over the past week or so. Fears about rising interest rates have come back to the fore and were crystallised in Jay Powell’s comments last Friday, aimed to signal that the Fed will take no prisoners when it comes to tackling inflation.

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Portfolio Review: July 2022

In ’real life’ I’ve had a good (albeit quite stressful) year so far. However, in the worlds of geopolitics and investing, 2022 seems likely to go down in the record books as a pretty terrible year, as the extent of the self-inflicted damage from the lunacy that has prevailed for the past couple of years has begun to reveal itself. Oh yeah, and Russia decided to start a war in Europe. For the US stock markets it was the worst first half since 1970. This seems appropriate as the high inflation, rising interest environment has felt reminiscent of the 70s. My portfolio has has its worse ever first half too – down almost 25% (though it has since recovered 5%-odd over the last couple of weeks).

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Catching up

I’ve neglected the blog since my last quarterly review back near the beginning of April. I’ve had rather a lot on my plate with work and family and haven’t had the time or mental bandwidth to get my thoughts down on paper. This has unfortunately coincided with the unpleasant but fascinating carnage unfolding in economies around the world and in the stock market. This has left my portfolio battered and bloody at the half-way point this year. I should have a bit more free time over the coming months to resume writing here. First I have a bit of catching up to do on my recent trades.

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Portolio Review: April 2022

I think it’s fair to say that it’s been a difficult first quarter for most investors, but especially those who invest in growth stocks or small caps. A rout in growth stocks driven by inflation and the anticipation of tightening monetary conditions was compounded by the war in Ukraine. There has been a significant rebound since then but my portfolio is still down by around 10% YTD, having been more than 20% down at one point.

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War

2022 is turning out to be a pretty unpleasant year for investing in growth stocks. After a dire January, February turned out not to be a whole lot better and March has started off grimly too. Much of this has been driven by the same fears of inflation and impending interest rate rises. However, events have now of course been overtaken by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Growthmaggedon

It’s been a difficult start to 2022 for growth-oriented investors. Most growth stocks have been falling since the minutes from the December Fed meeting were released in early January. These took a more hawkish tone than expected and fears of runaway inflation and rising interest rates appear to have taken over.

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Copycat portfolio update

This is the end of the second year of my copycat portfolio experiment. So far it’s performed well but not outstandingly. Over the past year it returned 25.2%, which compares favourably to the FTSE (11.3%) and S&P 500 (23.1%) and my actual portfolio (21%). Over two years the copycat portfolio has returned 46.9% compared to FTSE (-1.61%) and S&P 500 (45%) and my portfolio (45%).

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Black Friday

Stock markets seem to have taken a bit of a fright at news of a new Covid variant and the prospect of lockdowns rearing their ugly heads again. This news has unsurprisingly hammered the sectors most affected ie travel, retail and other cyclical sectors. My portfolio has fared relatively better than the indices in response to this news, though this is coming off the back of a week’s mauling by another short but sharp rotation from growth to value.

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October trades

October was a decent month and my portfolio managed to claw back some of the fall from the end of September. The market as a whole seems to have recovered some of its mojo and US earnings season has started fairly positively, though I’m not sure how long this will last. The spectre of rising inflation and interest rates still looms in the background.

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