Short attacks!

I wasn’t intending to write a post this week as I am still very busy with other engagements at the moment. However, after the dramatic short attack on Burford Capital last week, which until quite recently had been one of my largest positions, I’ve decided to record my thoughts and a number of recent trades. Continue reading

INTU bought

Markets had a bit of a wobble since my last update a couple of weeks ago, but are now looking up again. The financial news often feels like Groundhog Day at the moment, with the same concerns about a US or global recession, the reaction of the Fed, inverted yield curves, trade wars and Brexit appearing then receding from week to week. My portfolio has been holding up relatively well apart from one fly in the ointment – Burford Capital.

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Trade bores

After a roaring April with double digit gains, so far May has been rather more frustrating. I have three things to thank for this: one, the rekindling of the US China trade war; two, an analyst note questioning the accounting of what was my largest holding, Burford Capital; and three, a chest infection that’s taking its sweet time to get better. None of these issues seem worth getting too bothered about in the long term, but that doesn’t stop them being a source of frustration right now.  Continue reading

What drives share prices?

This post is inspired by reading George Soros’s paper on reflexivity.  I’ve taken the basic idea but then applied it to investing in a different way to Soros. The result is that I end up writing about a something a bit different. The implications are fairly intuitive and I think crucial to understanding why markets behave the way they do. This post is more abstract conjecture than practical advice, but hopefully I’ve managed to come up with something that manages to be thought-provoking but accessible. Continue reading

JD bought

Everything seems to be looking up in the markets at the moment, at least it does from my particular vantage point. My portfolio has risen pretty relentlessly so far this year and is almost back at its all time highs, something I  didn’t expect to happen nearly so quickly back at Christmas time. Many of the other investors I follow on Twitter have also been posting high-teen YTD returns or better (well done if that’s you). As I mentioned in my recent portfolio review, I think the macro picture currently seems fairly benign for investors in high quality equities. What could go wrong I wonder? Continue reading