The latest round of Parliamentary voting on Brexit has left the ultimate outcome entirely unresolved, with two weeks to go before we are due to leave. All possible outcomes are still on the table. This includes not only the indeterminate extension to Article 50 that has been voted for but also Theresa May’s deal, which refuses to go away despite it being resoundingly rejected twice by some evidently not-so-meaningful votes, and no-deal, which remains the default despite Parliament voting against it. Continue reading
The spectre of economic and market meltdown continues to recede after the panicky final quarter of last year. We now have an accomodating Fed, better than expected economic growth in the US, progress in trade negotiations with China and an imminent no-deal Brexit looking less likely. Valuations for high quality shares are becoming pretty demanding in some cases but not outlandishly so. I’m becoming more confident that 2019 is likely to be a good year for equities. There’s certainly been quite a steaming run so far. I’m pleased to be up about 10% but this doesn’t seem to be that special – the S&P 500 is up 12% after one of the best starts to a calendar year ever! Continue reading
It’s been a very positive start to 2019 for stock markets on both sides of the pond. There has been a fairly relentless rise since the Christmas Eve low. It’s starting to feel like the worst of the correction may be behind us. However, in the short term we seem to be near a point of inflection, with the US indices bouncing around near the 200 day moving averages and the FTSE not far behind. As ever, it could go either way from here. Either way, I’m feeling vindicated in my decision to remain fully invested through the recent volatility. I might have gained in the short term from selling out but it would have been bloody hard to decide when to get back in. Continue reading
Part of the rationale for starting this blog was that it would provide some discipline against acting impulsively and making unforced errors. I’m far from immune from fear and greed and the powerful impulses to act these emotions can generate. In the past I’ve occasionally succumbed to bouts of panic or impatience and made some pretty bonkers decisions as a result. Committing myself to record all of my trades and justify the rationale behind them publically provides a mechanism to restrain myself – it’s much easier to behave like an idiot when you think no-one is watching. Continue reading
The market outlook feels like it has improved a little over the last couple of weeks. There has been quite a bounce since the start of the year, the Fed has signalled more accommodating monetary policy and there seems to be progress of sorts in trade negotiations between the US and China. No doubt this is just a temporary high point before the volatility resumes, but it is starting to feel like the worst may be behind us (touch wood).
I hope everyone had a delightful Christmas yesterday. I’ve just celebrated the second Christmas after nearly two years of writing this blog. I’ve very much enjoyed getting my thoughts out there and feel that the process has improved my investing. I’m hoping that work quietens down a bit next year, as while I still have lots of ideas for stuff to write about, it’s been pretty tough to keep the momentum going recently.
I’m writing this post off the back of the worst week since 2008 for the US stock market. So much for the Santa Rally. This year we have a Krampus Crash and it seems with my focus on high growth momentum stocks and exposure to US tech that I’ve been on the naughty list. Continue reading
While I’m not too worried about the impact that the Brexit outcome might have on my portfolio, it is making my job more ‘interesting’. The result is that I haven’t had much time for blogging and now have two trades to update on: two weeks ago I bought back into Keywords Studios and this week I bought some shares in Diploma. Continue reading