Yo-yo markets

The market outlook feels like it has improved a little over the last couple of weeks. There has been quite a bounce since the start of the year, the Fed has signalled more accommodating monetary policy and there seems to be progress of sorts in trade negotiations between the US and China. No doubt this is just a temporary high point before the volatility resumes, but it is starting to feel like the worst may be behind us (touch wood).

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Merry Christmas!

I hope everyone had a delightful Christmas yesterday. I’ve just celebrated the second Christmas after nearly two years of writing this blog. I’ve very much enjoyed getting my thoughts out there and feel that the process has improved my investing. I’m hoping that work quietens down a bit next year, as while I still have lots of ideas for stuff to write about, it’s been pretty tough to keep the momentum going recently.

I’m writing this post off the back of the worst week since 2008 for the US stock market. So much for the Santa Rally. This year we have a Krampus Crash and it seems with my focus on high growth momentum stocks and exposure to US tech that I’ve been on the naughty list. Continue reading

Come on Santa!

While I’m not too worried about the impact that the Brexit outcome might have on my portfolio, it is making my job more ‘interesting’. The result is that I haven’t had much time for blogging and now have two trades to update on: two weeks ago I bought back into Keywords Studios and this week I bought some shares in Diploma. Continue reading

Still in the woods…

The market correction we are currently experiencing is not showing any imminent signs of abating. Significant market corrections can be self-fulfilling in nature, as fear leads to falling prices, which in turn can lead to further fear of further price falls. This vicious circle can happen even if the original fears are not well founded, as I believe to be the case now. It’s hard to predict how long the bearish conditions will last. The fact that valuations are still pretty high compared to historical averages suggests there is scope for prices to fall further. On the plus side, an environment of excessive pessimism seems to be building and I can see a few potential catalysts on the horizon that could lead to a sizeable rally in the not too distant future.

I made my scheduled trade last week, selling Accesso Technologies and buying Auto Trader.

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RWS bought

I’ve been very busy for the past couple of weeks with my day job, which has become pretty hectic. This hasn’t left me much time to write blog posts – I’ve restricted myself to simply updating on my trades until things quieten down. I have a few ideas for some more interesting strategy-related posts but probably won’t have time to start getting them down until mid to late November. Stay tuned. In the meantime, I have one trade to update on from last week: RWS Holdings. Continue reading

Looking on the bright side

The panic seems to be subsiding, well at least momentarily, after last week, though share prices still seem to be quite volatile. I’m surprised at how sensitive my outlook is to share price volatility, despite my better judgment. Last week felt like it could be the beginning of the end, even though the rational part of me reasoned that there wasn’t much to worry about. A small bounce and I’m already looking forward to a monster Santa Rally. Those emotions are tricksy little blighters. Continue reading

GAW bought

I was going to start this post with a brief commentary about the general state of the market. This is how I have tended to introduce my posts updating on portfolio trades. Reading back through them, it now seems quite amusing how often my degree of optimism changes week to week. While it is quite interesting to have a record of this emotional rollercoaster, I’m going to stop doing these commentaries. I’m trying to become more relaxed about short term price movements and this feels like one thing I can change (along with checking my portfolio too frequently). Preoccupation with the ups and downs of the market doesn’t help my performance. Unless I have good reason to believe a crash is coming, it’s not worth worrying. It may even be counterproductive. Continue reading