Soleimani bounce

The stock market seems to be brimming with optimism at the moment. After the assassination of Iranian bad dude Qasem Soleimani led to an extremely short-lived panic on Monday (which only seemed to affect the US market after hours), the markets are buoyant now that further escalation is looking less likely. At the moment I’d guess that we’re probably in for another good year with the likely re-election of Trump and a likely improvement in global economic growth in the horizon. 

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Landslide

The UK general election has finally arrived and it’s little surprise that the Conservatives have won convincingly. Regardless of your political leaning this is good news for shares and is welcome relief from a December that has been pretty grim until now. Trump’s trade war shenanigans have been keeping investors on their toes over the pond. The medium term outlook is looking positive and I’ve got my fingers crossed for a Santa Rally.
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Turning the corner?

After almost half a year of stagnation, during which my portfolio gains from the beginning of the year have been slowly chipped away, it’s starting to feel like we may be due for a decent final stretch this year. The S&P 500 breaking out to new highs seems like a promising sign, though my current optimism is likely also influenced by the boost from Games Workshop my portfolio received on Friday. Continue reading

ANSS & FAA bought

Another dramatic week for Brexit: another deal, another delay. The news of the possible impending deal has had quite a dramatic impact on the exchange rate and UK stock market since the end of last week. From the perspective of my portfolio these two effects have cancelled each other out to some extent. However, my focus on businesses earning in Dollars means I’ve performed relatively worse than the rest of the market. Continue reading

ARC bought

It feels that I may have tempted fate with the comment in my last post that I don’t think we are yet at a point where the quality momentum trade will start underperforming. Pretty much as I was writing it, the US stock market experienced a mini ‘momentum-crash’, as investors rotated from high growth stocks to cheaper plays. This may have been a one-off but it has given me pause for thought. Continue reading

Short attacks!

I wasn’t intending to write a post this week as I am still very busy with other engagements at the moment. However, after the dramatic short attack on Burford Capital last week, which until quite recently had been one of my largest positions, I’ve decided to record my thoughts and a number of recent trades. Continue reading

INTU bought

Markets had a bit of a wobble since my last update a couple of weeks ago, but are now looking up again. The financial news often feels like Groundhog Day at the moment, with the same concerns about a US or global recession, the reaction of the Fed, inverted yield curves, trade wars and Brexit appearing then receding from week to week. My portfolio has been holding up relatively well apart from one fly in the ointment – Burford Capital.

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Trade bores

After a roaring April with double digit gains, so far May has been rather more frustrating. I have three things to thank for this: one, the rekindling of the US China trade war; two, an analyst note questioning the accounting of what was my largest holding, Burford Capital; and three, a chest infection that’s taking its sweet time to get better. None of these issues seem worth getting too bothered about in the long term, but that doesn’t stop them being a source of frustration right now.  Continue reading