My crystal ball is better than yours: superforecasting

The inspiration for this post is a book I read recently called ‘Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction’ by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It’s a good read with quite a few interesting insights. The possible applications of these insights to investing really struck a chord with me. Continue reading

More market volatility

The markets have not been kind over the last couple of weeks, particularly to holders of higher rated growth businesses. After such a strong run over the previous year the change is certainly noticeable. My portfolio is about 4% off its high but of more concern is that most of the share prices of my watchlist companies are rolling over too. I’ve decided to take some evasive action. Continue reading

Mega cap shares to buy and hold

I’ve wondered which shares I would hold if I was only invested in the FTSE 100. Very large businesses tend to be somewhat more durable and less volatile. If I was someone that didn’t want to spend a lot of time and effort monitoring a set of smaller cap stocks I might stick to investing in a basket of megacap stocks for the long term. For me, the choice of which stocks I would include is not that hard. Continue reading

BOTB bought

Despite some potentially damaging testimony from Comey and an unexpected hung parliament result from the UK general election, markets have behaved pretty well in the end. My portfolio has been buoyed by its overseas earnings exposure (which benefits from the fall in the £) and by a corker of a trading update from my largest holding,, which now looks like it’s heading off into space!

I have bought a new holding in Best of the Best (3% of portfolio) yesterday with some of the spare cash in the portfolio following a good trading update.  Continue reading